A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
